There are a lot of numbers on the big board behind me, but what it all comes down to is, I think there’s an inefficiency. I think Alexander Volkanovski should be favored by more to win in his upcoming matchup against Ilia Toria. Because of that, there is really good value for gamblers who are betting on the UFC 298 Main Event.
Let’s get into the numbers and my reasoning starting with UFC 298. Alex is the slight favorite at a minus 130, Ilia is a slight underdog at a plus 110. Minus 130 gives Alex an implied win probability of 56.25%, which I think is far too low.
So, let’s look at Alex’s most recent matchups, starting with UFC 294. He was a plus 210 underdog against the minus 260 favorite, Islam Makach. The reason why UFC 294 is significant is because Alex got knocked out badly by a head kick, by a leg kick to the head. This happened on October 21st, and this upcoming matchup will occur on February 17th. So that will be 119 days from the time he was knocked out. This may be what is weighing heavily in odds makers putting Alex at a slight favorite, but let’s continue on to UFC 290.
And this is where Alex was a minus 370 heavy favorite against the plus 290 heavy underdog, Yair Rodriguez. What is interesting about this is, I think Yair presented Alex with the most dangerous matchup outside of Islam Makev, and yet Alex was the extreme favorite here. I think Alex’s current odds should be more in line with this minus 370, and I’ll get to why in a second. But just keep in mind that Yair is very dangerous and he was still an overwhelming underdog at UFC 290.
At UFC 284, we saw the initial matchup with Islam Makf, and Alex was a big underdog at a plus 310. At UFC 276, we saw Alex and Max Holloway. I think this was their trilogy fight, and Alex was at a minus 190 for this one. At UFC 273, Alex was a minus 700 favorite against the Korean Zombie. Then, at UFC 266, Alex was a minus 155 favorite against Brian Ortega.
So, what I want to focus in here though, is UFC 290. He was a minus 370 favorite. Why isn’t he more favored in this upcoming matchup with Ilia Toria? Let’s look at Ilia Toria’s recent significant matchups. We had Bryce Mitchell where he was the number 14th. Ilia was ranked number 14 against number nine, Bryce Mitchell, and he won in convincing fashion against Bryce Mitchell, although Mitchell had his moments.
Then Ilia Toria came in ranked number nine against number five, Josh Imtt, and Ilia dominated Josh Imtt over five rounds, getting the decision. What’s interesting is, in these matchups, Ilia was the already the slight favorite against Bryce Mitchell, even though, of course, Bryce was ranked number nine and Ilia was number 14. So, he was already given oddsmakers were already favoring him. And then, what really stands out is, Toria was a minus 320 favorite against Josh Imtt, even though Imtt was ranked number five at the time. Ilia was only number nine at the time, and then Imtt was the plus 265 underdog.
So, odds makers have given Toria a lot of respect, and they’re continuing to do so against Alexander Volkanovski. But just given these past matchups, what do we have here to provide any sort of basis that these two should be evenly matched or very Ilia should be the very slight underdog? I don’t see any evidence of that, really. There isn’t much to go on with Ilia besides the hype and his confidence. So, I think that may be what’s swinging things is emotions.
And besides that, we do know there might be something with this knockout. There might be something to that because, with odds makers, this is the sharpest money in the world. You’ve always got to assume that they know something that you don’t. But given the outsider’s perspective, I think Alex should be a much more significant favorite. In fact, I went ahead and put at a minus 350, which gives him a 77.78% implied win probability.
So, this is not to say that Alex will for sure win, of course, we don’t know that. But I think he should be, I think 77% of the time, thereabouts, he would be the winner in this matchup. And then so when we go and we look at the money here, if we bet $100 at Alex being a minus 130, we get a $76.98 profit. If we consider him at a 350, which is what I think he should be, then you would win a $28.57 profit.
So, really here, if we were to just take the $100 just as an example for this one time, you’re really getting a free $48.35 if you assume right, if you assume I’m correct here and that Alex wins. So, if Alex wins, this is looking really good. It comes out that way because Alex, to me, should be at a minus 350 favorite. And so, if he wins, if you consider that, then you’re basically getting $483 for free because the odds makers have him at such a slight favorite rather than a heavy favorite.
And then, when we look at the expected value, so if we were to consider this and we were to run it over and over again, this, and we’re correct in our assigning significance in the win probability and we’re factoring in the time that Alex loses, the average winnings here would be $15.38 per $100 bet. And so, over time, this really is a winning type of bet.
And I have given the interviews, given everything leading up to UFC 298, I don’t see any reason not to more significantly more heavily favor Alexander Volkanovski. And right now, at a minus 130, if I was betting, I’m not, I’m in Texas, but if I was betting, I would put heavy money on Alex just because I think this represents one of those real opportunities that occasionally comes up in sports betting where the odds makers are really, really off. And so, at a minus 130, that, to me, should be at a minus 350 right. And you can assign whatever odds you want to, but if we just play it conservative, I put it at minus 350 because, what has Ilia done? What has Ilia done? He’s beaten Josh EMT and he’s beaten Bryce Mitchell. Okay, what has Alexander Volkanovski done? Well, other than against Islam, who is in a weight class higher, he’s destroyed everybody, every contender at 145.
So, Alexander Volkanovski’s work speaks for itself. Brian Ortega, Korean Zombie, Max Holloway three times, Yair Rodriguez. This is everybody. These are all of the contenders at 145, and he’s defeated them all. And then against Islam, he fought Islam really close. And in this first matchup, he was definitely an extreme underdog. But then in the next matchup, he took it on 11 days’ notice. So, if the head kick is weighing in more heavily than the public knows, I can see that.
But, I don’t know that Alexander Volkanovski talks as if everything is fine. I think this is going to be a win many, many times in this matchup. And so, for this reason, I think there’s an inefficiency, and I think Alex should be favored by more.