The Russell Wilson trade has turned out horribly for the Denver Broncos, but was it a horrible trade at the time it was made? Let’s look at the information available to the Broncos when the trade occurred, but let’s first start out with the trade itself. On March 8, 2022, ESPN reported that the Denver Broncos traded quarterback Drew Lock, tied in Noah Fant, defensive lineman Shelby Harris along with their 2022 1st round pick, 2023 1st round pick. 2022 2nd round pick, 2023 2nd round pick and 2022 5th round pick to the Seattle Seahawks for Russell Wilson and the Seahawks 2022 4th round pick. Of note is that Russell Wilson had a no trade clause. Reportedly, there were multiple teams interested in acquiring Wilson, but this trade clause effectively limited his market. Now, Wilson still had two years, $51 million left on his existing contract. On September 1, 2022, Wilson signed a five-year extension with the Broncos for $245,000,000, 165,000,000 of which were guaranteed, and this was the third most guaranteed money in NFL history.
Now, for the upcoming season, Russell was 33 years of age. He was entering his 11th NFL season, and notably in November, he turned 34. Now, in the seasons previous, the Broncos were five and eleven in 2020, and then in 2021, their record was seven and ten. So they were a poor team, presumably hoping that the addition of Wilson would turn them into a contender. So when this trade was made, what was Russell Wilson, the player? What were we looking at? So, in 2020, he had statistically his best NFL season. He played in all 16 games. He totaled 4212 passing yards. He had 40 tds, 13 interceptions, a completion percentage of 68.8. He had 513 rushing yards, 83 carries, 6.2 yards per carry, and then two rushing touchdowns. So things looked really good in 2020. But what was concerning was that in 2021, his numbers dropped. He only played in 14 games. His yards went down by over 1000 to 3113 yards. He only had 25 passing tds. His interceptions went down, so that was good. But his completion percentage also went down to 64.8%. His rushing yards plummeted to 183. His carries also nearly halfed to 43, and his yards per carries went down to 4.3. And he maintained two rushing touchdowns. So that’s very concerning, especially given Russell Wilson’s age at the time this is happening. So he was 32 headed into this 2021 season, and then he turned 33. Now, he did have, statistically his best season in 2020 in his career. But like I said, in 2021, we saw those numbers fall off a cliff.
What is of note is that in Russell Wilson’s career, he is ranked currently number three in rushing yards. He will be passed by Lamar Jackson shortly, but he’s currently ranked number three in all-time passing yards. And he’s also ranked number two in all-time rushing attempts. Again, he will be passed by Lamar Jackson. But this is important because Russell Wilson is a running quarterback. And what is of note is that from the years of 27 to 29 rushing declines amongst quarterbacks that are, running quarterbacks, and then from 25 to 33, these are the top production years of quarterbacks. So when are the Broncos acquiring Wilson? Right as he is turning 34 in November. So they’re getting him at the exact worst time that you would not want to get a quarterback. And then there are some quarterbacks that we know of, of course, that produce, elite seasons after the age of 34. But when you look at these quarterbacks, they are all non-runners. And by any metric, Russell Wilson, throughout the course of his career, has been a running quarterback. That is what has helped boost his success. We have seen that he has experienced success passing the ball, but he has definitely been a running quarterback throughout the majority of his career and especially in his most successful years.
So one other point I wanted to make is, again, that 2022, he did have his best statistical season. And here I have his fantasy points, which were 359. And I use this not to say that fantasy points are necessarily indicative of success, but they do help give us a numbers-based, baseline. And then in 2021, we saw his fantasy points go down to 242. So that’s a significant dip. And it’s especially concerning given his age. At the time, his numbers were falling off a cliff. And then, so the Broncos not only take him at this time, but they pay, really an ultra-premium, not only in trading for him, but then they leverage the trade even more by adding a five-year extension. And this is what I find particularly inexplicable, is when he already had two years left on his contract. Why are you extending a quarterback that is turning 34 in November of the trade? So he still has two years, and then the extension kicks in. And so to pay him this third most guaranteed money in NFL history is really hard to justify. And so that’s what I have here. So when you take the draft picks and then you add in the salary, you’re paying an ultra-premium on an uncertain return on value. And so what I’m getting at here is it’s really hard for the value to be returned to the Broncos. The only way is if Russell Wilson continued to just have 2020 seasons over and over and over again. And not only this, we had only seen Russell Wilson in the Pete Carroll system. We had never seen him in, any other system. So it was going to be hard to tell whether he could replicate that success. And that’s something I would have wanted to see before I extended him on this massive five-year extension. So the trade itself is already questionable, but then when you stack in the guaranteed money and the lengthy extension, it was completely unnecessary and never really made any sense. And when you look at the stats, right, Russell Wilson being a running quarterback, Russell Wilson entering his 11th season for his very first season in which he would have played for the Broncos, Russell Wilson already being 33. There were just so many factors that made this a very difficult trade for the Broncos to have any upside to it, for the Broncos to see any of the value returned. So at the time the trade was made, the Broncos a horrible decision.